The latest Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) – the largest snapshot of UK business sentiment ahead of this month’s Budget – paints a sobering national picture.
Confidence and investment remain stubbornly flat, with many firms clearly feeling the strain of prolonged cost pressures and policy uncertainty.
According to the survey, fewer than half (48%) of UK businesses expect turnover to rise over the next 12 months, while just over one in five anticipate a decline. Investment remains subdued, too: only 21% have increased their plans, with a quarter scaling back. At the same time, concern over taxation has risen sharply, alongside renewed worries about inflation.
This is not a story of collapse – but it is one of bruised resilience. As David Bharier, Head of Research at the BCC, rightly observed: “Ahead of the Chancellor’s statement next month, our survey shows many firms remain bruised and are not ready for another Budget battering. For 12 months, SMEs have told us the same story: rising costs, weak investment and little sense of relief on the horizon.”
A challenging national backdrop
Taxation has emerged as the single biggest concern for firms (cited by 59%), up from 56% in Q2 and dramatically higher than before the 2024 Budget. Inflation, too, is back on the agenda, with 57% of businesses citing it as a key worry – the highest level this year.
Meanwhile, labour costs remain the most significant pressure, highlighted by 72% of respondents. This is particularly acute in hospitality (80%) and transport (78%).
It is against this backdrop that this month’s Budget looms large. Many businesses have already factored in a difficult fiscal environment. What they fear most is surprise measures that further tighten the screws.
Here in Bedfordshire, however, while the challenges are real, our conversations with members suggest a more nuanced picture. Many businesses are taking a pragmatic, forward-looking approach. Yes, rising costs, tax uncertainty and supply chain issues are weighing on planning decisions. But there’s also a strong undercurrent of determination to adapt, invest wisely and focus on what can be controlled.
CEO
Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce
We’re hearing from members across sectors who are holding their nerve. They are seeking out efficiencies and continuing to prioritise relationships, skills and innovation. They know the national picture is tough, but they also recognise the strength that comes from being part of a connected, collaborative business community.
The survey findings underline what many members have been telling us: that uncertainty around future taxation and regulation is dampening investment appetite. A quarter of businesses nationally are cutting back on plans, particularly in hospitality and retail, where margins are already tight.
Locally, we’re seeing firms delay major capital spending until there is greater clarity on the fiscal landscape. This is understandable, but it’s also a reminder of how critical stability and consistency are to business confidence. Policy decisions made in Westminster reverberate through local economies like ours.
Our message to government is clear: this is not the moment for further tax rises or unexpected policy shifts. What businesses need is certainty, a long-term strategy for growth, and practical support to address skills shortages, infrastructure gaps, and export opportunities. Looking ahead: confidence built on community.
The national survey may show confidence flatlining, but here in Bedfordshire we continue to see businesses leaning into their networks and supporting one another. Whether it’s through Chamber events, peer learning or joint ventures, there’s real power in shared knowledge and collaboration.
This is why our role as a Chamber is more important than ever. We’re ensuring that your voices are heard nationally through the British Chambers of Commerce network, while also providing the local insight, support and connections that help you navigate uncertainty.
We will continue to press for a Budget that backs business – one that avoids further burdens and rewards investment, and one that lays the groundwork for sustainable growth. At the same time, we’ll keep championing the ingenuity and resilience that define Bedfordshire’s business community.
Because while national sentiment may be bruised, Bedfordshire businesses have shown time and again that they are not beaten. Together, we will keep moving forward.
To learn more about joining the Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce, visit the website here or call 01582 522448.
